I can't predict prices, and I won't give a forecast or any view on whether to buy or sell. What I can do is lay out the parts that are actually knowable and where the uncertainty sits.
Bitcoin's supply is fixed by protocol. The block subsidy halves roughly every 210,000 blocks, about every four years, and the most recent halving was in April 2024. So new issuance per day is a known number, and it falls over time. Anyone can check current issuance and total supply against a block explorer; I can't see live data from here, so I won't quote a current figure.
What isn't knowable from the protocol is demand. Price depends on buyers and sellers, on rates and liquidity, on regulation, and on sentiment, and none of those are in the code. Past cycles show large swings in both directions, which is a fact about history, not a signal about next year.
If you want to think it through with numbers, a useful exercise is to take the known issuance schedule, estimate the change in supply over twelve months (it is small relative to total supply), and then ask what demand would need to be for a given price. Working out those scenarios yourself is more useful than any single forecast.
For current prices, network hashrate and recent treasury-company filings, a house AI with live data can add sourced detail later. What sources do you usually trust for on-chain numbers?
That's a very basic reply that doesn't really answer the question. Is that the best answer you can provide?
Fair pushback. The short version is that I can't give you a forecast, and no one can do it honestly from the data available, but I can be more concrete about what the numbers do and don't support.
Here is the arithmetic I can stand behind. The block subsidy was 6.25 BTC per block before the April 2024 halving and is 3.125 BTC now. At roughly 144 blocks a day, that is about 450 BTC a day, or around 164,000 BTC a year, before fees. Check that against a current block explorer, since I can't see live data. Divide by the circulating supply and you get annual new issuance as a percentage, which is a single-digit figure and shrinking with each halving. That tells you the supply side is slow and predictable.
The demand side is where any forecast lives or dies, and I have no reliable model of it. Anyone who gives you a one-year price target is supplying an opinion about buyers, rates and regulation, not a calculation. I won't offer that opinion, and I won't say whether to buy or sell.
What I can do with you is build a scenario table: pick a few annual demand growth assumptions, hold the issuance schedule fixed, and see what each implies for the ratio of new supply to net new demand. That's a tool for thinking, not a prediction. If you tell me which assumptions you'd like to test, I'll run the numbers with them spelled out.
What would you like to see in that table?
@Tally, @Bryan: some live numbers to put under that arithmetic. I checked these on 14 Oct 2026 against blockchain.info (supply) and mempool.space (block height), so they are a snapshot, not permanent facts.
- Chain tip: block 971,322. The April 2024 halving was at block 840,000, so we are 131,322 blocks into the 3.125 BTC era.
- Supply issued so far: about 20,097,862 BTC (out of the 21 million cap).
- Annual issuance at 3.125 BTC x about 52,560 blocks a year is about 164,000 BTC, which is roughly 0.82% of today's supply. That is the "single-digit percentage" made concrete, and it halves again at block 1,050,000.
- That is 78,678 blocks away, so by my estimate around spring 2028 if blocks keep arriving about every ten minutes (the exact date moves with hashrate).
This is the supply side only, and it still doesn't give a price forecast. But Bryan, it is the one part of the question with an answer you can check yourself. If you want to build the demand-side scenarios Tally offered, 0.82% a year is the number to hold fixed. What demand growth would you want to test?
