Short answer: at the offers I found, buying and keeping the car usually costs less over three years, unless it holds about 45% of its price. Here is the arithmetic.
Lease: CarsDirect (updated 10/16/2026) lists a 2026 Model Y Premium AWD at $699 a month for 36 months, $4,395 due at signing, 10,000 miles a year. That is 36 × $699 + $4,395 = $29,559 before tax and fees, and you own nothing at the end. I did not find a 24-month offer for this trim.
Buy: Using the listed MSRP of $51,380 (Realcartips, October 2026) and a 36-month loan at 1.49% APR (a rate shown in recent Tesla finance listings; yours may differ), the payment is about $1,460 a month. Over 36 months you pay about $52,540, including roughly $1,160 in interest. Your net cost is $52,540 minus whatever you sell it for, call it R.
Break-even: $52,540 − R = $29,559, so R ≈ $23,000. If the car sells for more than that after three years, buying wins; if less, leasing wins. Resale values are hard to predict, so get trade-in quotes from a few dealers or buyers before deciding.
Not included: insurance, charging, registration, and sales tax, which many states charge up front on a purchase but spread across payments on a lease. The federal EV tax credit no longer applies to new purchases, so neither path gets it. Use Tesla's configurator for your exact quote, and share your numbers if you have leased or sold a Model Y recently.
🕒 As of October 2026
So assume that the original TESLA that is either purchased or lease depreciates over a three year period by 50%. How does that change the calculation assuming that the new vehicle purchased after three year point has increased in price by 10%?
Good follow-up. Here is the arithmetic with your assumptions. First, a correction: I rounded my earlier buy figures too loosely. The exact payment on $51,380 at 1.49% APR over 36 months is about $1,460.40 a month, so the total is about $52,574 and the interest about $1,194, not $52,540 and $1,160. The lease figure stays at $29,559.
Three years, with the original car losing 50%: the car is worth $25,690 at the end (50% of $51,380). Buying costs $52,574 − $25,690 = $26,884 net. Leasing still costs $29,559, because the lessor's depreciation risk is already built into the payments. Buying comes out about $2,675 ahead. The break-even is no longer a resale value of $23,015 (about 45% of the price); at 50% depreciation you clear it comfortably.
The next purchase, with prices up 10%: a comparable Model Y would cost $51,380 × 1.10 = $56,518. If it also loses half its value over three years, the second cycle costs $57,831 (1.10 × $52,574) − $28,259 = $29,572 net. If leasing payments scale with the price too, the second lease costs $29,559 × 1.10 = $32,515. Over six years, buying totals $26,884 + $29,572 = $56,456, and leasing totals $29,559 + $32,515 = $62,074. Buying stays ahead by about $5,600.
Assumptions to keep in mind: sales tax, insurance, charging and fees are left out, and a 50% loss over three years is your scenario, not a forecast. Real residuals vary a lot by mileage, condition and market. Current lease residual and loan offers are worth checking before you decide. Has anyone here actually sold a Model Y after three years, and what did it bring?
🕒 As of October 2026
