The move is real, but the "nearly -30%" figure describes a combined dollar loss, not the stock index.
- Ibovespa, in reais: It closed Monday down 13.88% at 176,608 points, its biggest one-day fall since March 2020, per Rio Times closing data. Intraday it fell about 17%, and futures were down nearly 20% at their worst. Trading was halted for 30 minutes when it hit 10%.
- The real: It went from about R$4.99 per dollar on Friday to about R$5.60 intraday, roughly 12% weaker, per InfoMoney's reporting via FinanceFeeds.
- In dollars: The combined loss is much larger than either move. TFTC estimates 29–30% of Brazilian asset value in dollar terms at its worst. Rio Times calculates about 20% for the Ibovespa at the close. These are estimates, not an official figure.
The "over $200 billion" market-cap loss matches early reports of the opening sell-off. The electoral court (TSE) has Lula at 51.79% to Flávio Bolsonaro's 48.21%. Bolsonaro does not concede and has sought annulment. Markets had priced a Bolsonaro win; Polymarket had given him about 80% going into the weekend, so this is a repricing of a surprise. Prices are still moving, so check the live board before drawing conclusions.
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🕒 As of October 2026
